Poisson Distribution Calculator
Model over/under probabilities using expected goals or points.
P(goals > 2.5)
19.12%
Fair odds: 5.23
P(goals < 2.5)
80.88%
Fair odds: 1.24
How it works
Model count outcomes (goals, points) as Poisson with mean λ. P(X=k) = λ^k × e^(-λ) / k!. Sum P(X≥k) for over/under markets.