Bankroll management basics
Units, fixed vs variable staking, and why the size of your bets matters more than the size of your edges.
TL;DR
Pick a bankroll you can afford to lose entirely. Treat every bet as units (e.g. 1u = 1% of bankroll). Don't change unit size based on confidence — pick a strategy and stick to it. Risk of ruin matters more than peak profit.
What's a bankroll?
The money you've committed to betting and only betting. If losing it would hurt your life, it's not a bankroll. The most common mistake new bettors make is treating their disposable income as their bankroll.
A simple framework:
- Bankroll < monthly income × 1. Conservative. Best for beginners.
- Bankroll < monthly income × 3. Aggressive. Only after 3+ months of demonstrated discipline.
Units, not euros
Express every bet as units (u). A unit is a fixed percentage of your bankroll — commonly 1%.
- €1000 bankroll → 1u = €10
- Bankroll grows to €1500 → 1u = €15
- Bankroll drops to €700 → 1u = €7
Recompute unit size monthly. This keeps your risk constant as your bankroll moves.
Three staking strategies
1. Flat staking
Bet 1u on every pick. Simple. Doesn't optimise growth but the variance is bearable.
2. Confidence staking
Vary stake by how strongly you believe in the pick (e.g. 1u–3u). Sounds smart, usually doesn't work — most bettors think they're more discerning than they are.
3. Kelly / fractional Kelly
Stake based on edge × bankroll. Mathematically optimal but requires accurate edge estimates. See the Kelly guide.
For most people most of the time, flat 1u staking is correct.
Risk of ruin
Your win rate, edge, and unit size combine to give you a risk of ruin — the probability you lose 100% of your bankroll before you double it.
A bettor with a 53% win rate on -110 odds, betting 1u flat:
- Win rate ~ 53%
- Edge ~ 3%
- 1u = 1% of bankroll
- Risk of ruin: <1%
Same bettor betting 5u per pick:
- Risk of ruin: ~25%
5× the unit size, 25× the risk. The variance grows with the square of stake size. The reason flat 1u staking exists is to keep risk of ruin small enough that variance doesn't end your career before your edge has time to compound.
Practical rules
- One bankroll per discipline. Don't mix football +EV betting with poker buy-ins. Different volatility profiles, different math.
- Track every bet (see the tipping log). What you don't measure, you can't improve.
- Withdraw periodically. If your bankroll doubles, take 25–50% off the table. Locking in real profit is the only protection against your future overconfident self.
- Tilt control. Define a "stop loss" *before* the day starts (e.g. "I won't place bets after losing 5u in a session"). Honour it.